Recognition Marketing - 2008 Is The Year Of Emergent Complexity In Marketing

Are You Prepared To Win?

By David Miranda

Does life seem to be more complex than ever before? This is surely the case if you are a marketer. It seems like every day there is a new marketing channel to consider employing or a traditional channel that is less and less effective than before. The result, for most marketers, is cognitive dissonance on some scale. Cognitive dissonance, to refresh your memory, is a psychological term describing the uncomfortable tension that may result from having two conflicting thoughts at the same time, or from engaging in behavior that conflicts with one's beliefs. Sound familiar? Feel familiar.

Marketing is normally spoken of in macro terms, e.g. marketing strategy, brand positioning, etc. This macro approach is still relevant and needed in today's new landscape. The cognitive dissonance occurs in dealing with the complexity of how to best execute the macro strategy in a marketplace of uber-choice and uber-competition that produces desired results.

The answer lies in what researchers call "emergence" also known as "emergent complexity". (The PBS series "Nova" had an interesting program on emergence that ran in July of 2007.)

Scientists describe emergence as a science that studies how complex patterns and behaviors arise from the actions of individual units acting independently. The overall pattern that arises from the behavior of the individual parts is called emergent complexity.

Sounds complex, but consider this example.

We are all familiar with the games checkers or chess. The rules of these games, though few in number, give rise to a huge number of possible moves, most of them irrelevant or outright bad if the ultimate objective is to win, not just play, the game. Among these possibilities are those that greatly influence the possibility of winning (the right moves) assuming they are part of a strategy that includes only moves that positively contribute to winning. The "right moves" are those that exploit a game's basic rules but at a higher level of comprehension for those that play the game well. Winning (or success), therefore, is based on a player's keen understanding of the emergent complexity of the game including the basic rules, the level of competition, analysis of past performance, and the moves and counter-moves of each player in a dynamic environment.

Sound familiar? Feel familiar?

2008 will be a year of emergent complexity requiring new thinking to succeed. Using the chess analogy, it will be like playing three-dimensional chess where a move on one board will have an impact on the other boards in play. What are the boards? Search (organic and paid), mobile, social networking, blogs, product placement, PR, TV (broadcast, cable, satellite), POS, direct mail, etc. etc. etc. Each of these "games" have their own unique rules of play. Each demands their own keen contextual understanding to succeed. Each has their own respective emergent complexity. Each cannot be appreciated unless understanding their respective impact and influence on the greater good.

Here are some tips to exploiting emergent complexity:

1. Understand the media behavior of your targeted audience.


2. Understand the basic "rules" that apply to the channels your audience is using.


3. Create an internal culture of continuous learning by exploiting the basic rules of each channel and developing appropriate strategies that employ "the best moves" while eliminating the "irrelevant or outright bad moves".


4. Simultaneously, think horizontally, vertically and diagonally. Avoid "thought silos". A great chess player considers all the pieces on the board when considering a move.


5. Organize thoughtfully. Put the right players of your organization in the right game, i.e. "a great checkers player doesn't necessarily make a great chess player."

In summary, be prepared to play the game of emergent complexity in 2008 or find yourself "checkmated" by the competition.

Recognition Marketing - What To Look Out For In 2008

Be Prepared For The New Year

By David Miranda

2008 will be an interesting year. It is a presidential election year with the most diverse slate of candidates in a generation. US. economic growth is slowing. World oil prices remain high. Toyota is expected to claim GM's long-held spot as the world's Number One automaker. The American dollar is soft against major world currencies. Credit is getting tighter after the sub-prime debacle. The Summer Olympic Games will be held in Beijing. Yes, it should be an interesting year, but there are a few areas that a marketer should pay special attention to since they will have a dynamic impact on marketing strategy moving forward. These include:

1. The privacy issue - The assault on privacy has been both overt (opt-in/opt-out programs); covert (Patriot Act; data collection such as from cookies without the expressed prior approval of the consumer) over the past few years and criminal (ID theft, mishandled, stolen or lost consumer data occuring both in the public and private sectors. Marketing Implication: The Do-Not-Call List will be followed by Do-Not-Email, Do-Not-Mail, and Do-Not-Text lists, etc, etc.. Opt-in programs will become the norm. It will be more difficult in the future to get consumers to provide confidential information and there will be more government oversight due to consumer backlash. Search engines and other web sites will be required to get a consumer's prior approval to collect data from personal searches, browsing/surfing, etc. Bottom line: Advantage to the consumer.


2. The copyright issue - As this article is written, there is a prolonged writer's strike that has put the brakes on many productions in Hollywood. The main sticking point? Writers want a piece of the revenue derived from new channels of distribution of their work, e.g. the internet, mobile, podcasts, etc. Video-sharing sites, like YouTube, are the targets of litigation regarding copyright infringement with the copyright owners demanding either compensation or removal of their protected material. Other owners of copyrighted material such as magazines, newspapers, book publishers, etc. are seeking financial remedies for the unauthorized use of their content by third parties. Marketing implication: The free ride is over for those financially benefitting from using unauthorized copyrighted content. It is the distributor of the content who must either pay or do without. This includes search engines, audio & video sharing sites, etc. Bottom line: Look for a change in current business models.


3. Great ideas will cut through media clutter - Media channels have proliferated and will continue to do so as newer channels, like mobile, find their critical mass audience. Consumers, using new technology, are now determining their own individual media consumption patterns. In this world of uber-choice and uber-noise, great creativity is the key factor in cutting through the clutter. Marketing implication: Great ideas will be the most valuable marketing currency for a brand. Bottom Line: If your marketing is very, very, very good, it's not going to be good enough. It must be great, driven by world-class creativity.